THE 2009 BRITISH COLUMBIA BUDGET TD Economics

Interesting TD Economics article by Pascal Gauthier with a focus on British Columbia. Enjoy!

HIGHLIGHTS

• After a small $50 million surplus in fiscal year (FY) 2008-09, planning deficits are estimated at $495 million in FY 2009-10 and $245 million in FY 2010-11
• Return to balanced budget by FY 2011-12, with the help of cost savings worth $1.9 billion over 3 years
• No forecast allowance, but prudent growth forecasts and contingency amounts
• $9 out of every $10 in new spending towards health care
• Few new tax measures, back-end loaded to FY 2011-12
• Capital spending in infrastructure ramped up significantly (+ $14 billion)

British Columbia is feeling the pinch from the severe ongoing global recession, like every other region in the country. Compared to last September’s quarterly fiscal update, downward revisions to growth forecasts by the private sector have translated into a massive revenue shortfall of $6.6 billion over the Province’s 3-year fiscal planning horizon. As a result, for the first time in six years, the province is faced with a deficit. However, the deficits are expected to be modest both in absolute size (cumulating to $740 million over two years) and relative to the size of the economy (at 0.2% of nominal GDP in fiscal year 2009-10). The government has chosen not to include a forecast allowance as in previous years. However, in order to mitigate risks to its projections, it will use economic growth forecasts significantly below the private-sector consensus, and contingency amounts of $250 million to $385 million per year.

Economic and Revenue Outlook

The private-sector consensus forecast for real GDP growth calls for no growth (0.0%) in 2009. Akin to the prudent approach taken by the Federal Finance Department, B.C. Finance is playing it safe by using a forecast significantly below the private-sector average. Their assumption is for a contraction of real GDP of 0.9% this year, which is very close to our own call for a contraction of 1.0%. When compared to the Budget 2008 plan, the downward adjustment to revenue projections is broadly based, but most badly hit are own-source revenues in the form of resource royalties, corporate income taxes, and property transfer taxes. Similarly, but with a lesser difference, their real GDP growth forecast of 2.4% for 2010 lies below the private-sector forecast of 2.8%. Our own forecast for next year is more bullish and suggests some upside risk vis-à-vis their projection, with the main difference hinging mostly on the projected direct and indirect boost to growth from hosting the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Spending measures

Savings worth $1.9 billion over the 3-year planning horizon are being targeted, $250 million of which are yet to be identified. Administrative spending will be put under the microscope, while the number of senior executives in government will be slashed by 20% and no additional planned wage increases are being budgeted for upcoming rounds of public sector negotiations. The expected savings are being recycled towards key spending areas, but mostly health care. In fact, $4.8 billion, or 90% of all additional spending, is slated for health care. The remainder of additional spending will go to education, social services, safety, communities, and the environment.

Very much in line with a theme omnipresent in the Federal Budget and very likely to show up in other upcoming provincial Budgets, infrastructure spending is being ramped up significantly – to the tune of $14 billion over 3 years. Of this amount, $10.6 billion is for approved projects within the Province’s capital expenditure plan, while $2 billion is provided on a cost-shared basis with the Federal government, and the remaining $1.4 billion is for local infrastructure in partnership with the Federal and local governments.

Tax measures

The very few new tax measures introduced were understandably back-end loaded to FY 2011-12 and beyond. As announced in November, a 2-year property tax deferment program is being introduced. The B.C. Mining Flow-Through Share (non-refundable) Tax Credit is being extended by one year to the end of 2009. Expiry dates for film tax credits are being eliminated, while the credits themselves will be made available to other Canadian (non-B.C.-based) companies. Furthermore, starting in FY 2011-12,

The industrial property tax credit will increase from 50% to 60%, saving mills, mines, and other industrial employers $11 million per year. This tax relief will be funded from carbon tax revenues (intended to be revenue-neutral).

The Low Income Climate Action Tax Credit will increase by 10%, representing foregone revenue of $15 million per year.

A Northern and Rural homeowner benefit increase of $200/year, also funded by carbon tax revenues.

The farm land school property tax will decrease by 50%.
Bottom line

Faced with such a U-turn in economic fortunes in a short amount of time, the government has elected to modify its balanced budget legislation to allow for a cyclical deficit. Not having done so, and forcing taxes hikes and/or more drastic spending cuts could have meant exacerbating the recession. In the current context, leaning against this recession, along with other governments, and allowing a modest deficit while ramping up capital spending seems appropriate. As a result of these deficits and additional capital spending, the (taxpayer-supported) debt-to-GDP ratio will end up 2 percentage points (from 13.8% in FY 2008-09 to 15.8% in FY 2011-12) higher by the time a balanced budget is within reach. This would still lie below the 16.1% level recorded in FY 2005-06 and leave the province in a healthy fiscal position once the economic recovery has taken hold.

Pascal Gauthier, Economist
416-944-5730

All-in-one Strategy TD HELOC

All-in-one Strategy

all-in-one-strategy This quite a conservative strategy which can dramatically reduce overall interest paid on a mortgage (and reduce amortization).  What is further, this strategy is particularly beneficial if you have other outstanding higher interest debt (then it can actually improve your cashflow on top of that).

all-in-one-strategy $4000 in penalties & will still be far better off in the long run.  As opposed to waiting until his mortgage matured 4 years later.

 

The Smith Maneuver

The best example of how this strategy works can be found on Fraser Smith (the strategies inventor) website.  http://www.smithman.net/home.html.

This is a strategy we covered in our Advanced Financial Planning session.  As you paydown your mortgage you borrow back some of the  principal and place this in an investment.  You then get a tax refund for the investment loan, pay that against your mortgage.  You are essentially converting non tax-deductible bad mortgage debt, into good tax deductible  debt.  & in the long run the can be substantially better off.

Increased Amortization with Leverage

Hidden Money!

Increased Amortization with Leverage

 

Another strategy I employ with clients, involves increasing their mortgage amortization (which decreases payments) then taking out an investment loan and investing, with the plan of using it to pay down the mortgage in future.   It effectively lowers your monthly payment, creates a tax deduction annually, and pays off a mortgage quicker.

This looks really good, & has great potential, however it is important that you are aware of any risks associated with this particular strategy. This is the more risky of the 3 strategies (and although I have attached a sample of what this might look like – using a real client) this is really something we would want to go over before you make any decisions.

SAMPLE – for illustration purposes only

Original Principal: $248,000.00
Mortgage Loan Date: January 1, 2008
Original Proposed
Payment Frequency: Monthly Monthly
Mortgage Type: Fixed Rate Fixed Rate
Interest Rate: 5.000% 5.000%
Term (years): 10.00 10.00
Amortization (yrs/periods): 15.00 / 180 35.00 / 420
Payment Amount: $1,955 $1,244
Total Payments in First Year: $23,455 $14,922
Total Interest Cost For Term: $90,248 $115,032
Total Interest Cost For Amortization Period: $103,818 $274,280
Mortgage Balance at 10 years: $103,702 $213,809
Take out 100,000 Investment loan over 10 years with an 8% rate of growth (see
projections) = $110,226 net.
If used to pay down mortgage, outstanding balance after 10 years = 103,583 left owing on
the mortgage.
Your monthly payments are reduced by $344 per month & because your borrowing to
invest on the $100,000 investment loan. You will get a tax refund of $1764 annually.
Net result
$1764 in new tax savings
$119 less left owing on your mortgage
$344 less in monthly payments
• original cost – proposed + cost of Investment loan (367/month)
These projections are based on certain assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, but there is no assurance that the actual results
will be consistent with this projection. The actual results may vary, perhaps to a material degree, from these projections.

Our Picture made Failblog!!

Last week I submitted a picture to fail blog that was taken outside my office in Scottsdale AZ, very happy that it made it, it’s in the voting section called Driving Fail

more fail, owned and pwned pics and videos

TD Rate changes in effect Febuary 2009

Term	Rate	Change
6-month convertible	5.20	N/A
1-year open	7.45	N/A
1-year closed	5.00	N/A
2-year closed	5.75	N/A
3-year closed	5.75	N/A
4-year closed	5.69	N/A
5-year closed	5.79	N/A
6-year closed	6.40	N/A
7-year closed	7.00	N/A
10-year closed	7.35	N/A
1-year closed Special	4.00	N/A
4-year closed Special	4.39	N/A
5- year closed Special	4.49	N/A

 

Variable Interest Rate Mortgages	TD Mortgage Prime	Variance	Rate
Closed VIRM: Rate is TD Mortgage Prime + 0.80%	3.00	+0.80	3.80
Open VIRM: Rate is TD Mortgage Prime + 1.00%	3.00	+1.00	4.00
Home Equity Line of Credit	TD Prime	Variance	Rate
Float: Rate is TD Prime + 1.50%	3.00	+1.50	4.50