With the plunge in energy prices and a rapidly weakening economy, inflation shouldn’t pose any obstacle to further interest-rate cuts this coming week, and for some time to come.
But the Bank of Canada won’t even wait to see the September inflation report, being issued by Statistics Canada, before cutting interest rates further Tuesday, according to analysts who expect another cut of at least a quarter point.
Despite a surprise half-point reduction earlier this month, in coordination with reductions by central banks around the world, markets are pricing in at least another quarter-point reduction Tuesday.
“The global financial crisis has taken its toll on the Canadian economy, justifying the need for more monetary stimulus,” Scotia Capital said Friday, noting that among other things “retail sales are now barely growing.”
The Bank of Canada will issue a brief statement on Tuesday explaining its interest-rate decision, which will be followed by a more detailed explanation and update of its economic forecasts in its Monetary Policy Report on Thursday and at a news conference by bank governor Mark Carney.
“Look for the Monetary Policy to noticeably downgrade the outlook for Canadian economic growth, and clip the inflation projection,” said BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter.
Support for further rate cuts will likely also come from other domestic economic reports, including August wholesale sales today, and retail sales on Wednesday, both of which are expected to have been driven down by both weaker sales, especially for autos, as well as lower energy prices.
The bottom line is interest rates are coming down.
“Inflation concerns have been trumped by the credit crisis and enhanced risks of a global recession,” said CIBC economist Kirshen Rangasamy. “Declining energy prices should keep a lid on headline inflation over the rest of the year, and give the Bank of Canada ample room to provide further stimulus if necessary.”
Don’t bank on a quick retreat in inflation, however.
CIBC projects that prices edged up last month, leaving the inflation rate at 3.4 per cent, down only a notch from 3.5 per cent in August and still well above the Bank of Canada’s two-per-cent target.
“Gasoline prices continued to trend lower in September, albeit at a slower pace,” Rangasamy said, adding that downward pressure on inflation likely came from autos as well. “Those price declines should, however, be balanced out by higher prices for education, food and imported goods.”
Despite a dearth of U.S. economic reports in the coming week, the eyes of most analysts, here and elsewhere, will still be focused on the U.S. looking, hopefully, for signs of at least some stability in volatile and deeply depressed stock markets.
The only major U.S. economic report doesn’t come out until Friday, but it may contain a glimmer of hope, and from a surprising quarter: that country’s devastated housing market, the source of the whole financial and economic mess that the world now finds itself in.
Indications are that there may have been a moderate two-per-cent upturn in sales last month, noted BMO Capital Markets economist Sal Guatieri.
“The good news is that home sales appear to have stabilized this year after sliding deeply the previous two,” Guatieri said.
